I don't know a single person who was ever polled for an election. No one ever called me! And I don't trust or believe in them. I am going to continue my stress eating, Klonopin (just one a day) ingesting, caffeine, knitting like a demon. Oh kids, we have to win. We just have to.
Adding a topic: I hear Teri Garr died, RIP. Did anyone know her personally? Funny lady. -- Read a quote from her, that she didn't like to be stereotyped as "dumb sexy person" and liked more nuanced roles. Good that she stood up for women not being stereotyped.
Yes indeed. -- Speaking of "Young Frankenstein", Trump may resemble "Old Frankenstein", or "Old Rapist-stein". (Don't forget his buddy "Frankenmusk"! (I wrote a song with that latter title, may put up a free link sometime...) :D
The only time I had Ambien and a martini was on a plane either to or from Japan (can't remember), when a psychiatrist friend said that's what she was doing, so she ordered up the combo for me, too. I woke up I don't know how many hours later with a deep crease along the side of my face evidently caused by resting face-down between two seats. Or maybe I was on the floor. I couldn't tell you. And neither could she. xo
No Ambien here! I took it for while and went sleep-shopping online! Packages would show up in the correct size and in good taste. At least I know I wasn't shopping for horrible items in my sleep. My doctor thought it was hilarious. My bank account, not so much.
Shh. Don't tell him you're taking it. LOL. I couldn't figure out the packages, so I went to the websites and found that all the orders were in the middle of the night, like 3:30 a.m.
I actually have been polled on my cell phone, but I don't pick up unknown callers anymore. I did receive one by text in the past week that seemed legit. The questions were not biased, but more straight "Who do you plan to vote for?" "What party are you registered with?" etc. so I went ahead and filled it out.
But it all hinges on turnout, so the polls are somewhat meaningless.
I reserved 2 tickets to Trump MSG event (they force you to give cell #) and have been getting 20 fundraising texts a day from them. Thank god event is over (and was a disaster) so I could finally block the number. Did you know you are not allowed to bring appliances to Trump rallys? They specifically ban toasters. Are people making toast at Trump rallys? Or throwing them at the stage? WTF? If I had actually been planning to go, would have dragged my stove with me as my plus one.
Tony is KNOWN for being a roast/insult comic, I imagine fashions himself after Don Rickles. I found one of my favorite comics which I actually got to see in person, Ahren Belisile, who is mute but talks through his phone. But he was obviously was not properly vetted, or scarier, maybe he was. Look up Kill Tony on YouTube.
I don't believe polls for two reasons: (1) I've studied statistics. (2) Decades ago, I received a political call. When they asked their question, I told them that because of the way they worded it, if I answered yes, my answer wouldn't be true, and if I answered no, it also wouldn't be true. They hung up on me. So, unless we know the specific question asked when the poll is conducted, we can't know the true meaning of the response that leads to the poll number.
I did something similar once. I got a few questions in when it became crystal clear who was paying for that poll and it wasn't non-partisan at all as I was told. I told the questioner off for lying to me and hung up. Don't lie to me. It's rude.
I had one about a local race where the caller couldn’t pronounce the candidate’s name correctly, and I thought for half of the conversation she was talking about someone else.
The best way to predict the future is to make it, they say. On that note, it'd be great for 60 Minutes or the Today Show, etc., to interview E. Jean before the election. Donald Trump is a rapist: if he raped a voter, or their wife or daughter, would they vote for him? ...Believe it or not, I've written a rap song about E. Jean (!), and might share it later. But I'd like to see her in the spotlight, nationally, before (and on) Election Day. (And thanks to her for her timely post today!)
Agreed 100%. E.Jean it would be wonderful to see you interview on a show before the election. I would send out invites to watch to everyone I know!! -Staying in the moment for now!
If you aren’t already part of the Patreon Angry Staffer community, you owe it to yourself to tap into his/her expert knowledge of national security, international relations, and apropos here, the political machinations of Washington DC. Never a false note, never been wrong.
.
.
Short answer: national polls aren’t worth much especially now, because of the 20 most-quoted ones, 15 chartered by conservative R operations. Thus their skewed versions of reality drags the averages to the right, with misleading results. Internal polling, which doesn’t get released, is showing that the right is, like their Fuhrer, crapping their pants. This doesn’t mean we let up — we need to keep going full speed ahead on our efforts to put what’s left of the GOP in such a deep hole they’ll have to undergo wholesale restructuring, which will benefit everybody. It’s looking good but that means we have to get every last vote out there. Women will save the country.
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The Lincoln Project has some great ads out running now in “battleground” states. In them, the bros slap backs and assure each other their little ladies will vote for “the right guy,” just like they will. The women smile, “Of course, dear,” go into the privacy of the voting booth, smile at the woman in the next booth, and they both fill in the oval for Kamala Harris.
.
.
Reports from door-knockers and the sign distributors say much the same— the woman answers the door, slips out, and says she’s the only one on the block who’s voting for Harris; the doorknocker says, ”That’s what the woman three doors down told me, too.” The sign goes up; others on the block, formerly intimidated by T signs, put up their Harris-Walz signs too.
Fuck the polls. We can’t back down, but this is what happens when bullies get pushback: they fold. We got this.
Oh, and the other part of the strategy of flooding the airwaves with bogus polls is so that the Yamster can say the election was rigged because the polls had him doing so well. It’s specifically tailored to cast further aspersions on voting. He plans to declare victory at 9pm on Tuesday, well before other votes are even in or counted, in hopes that west coast voters will give up and not go to the polling places. And to howl about fraud because the polls were all for him … Don’t you buy a bit of it. For somebody who advertises himself a big strong man’s man , he sure is a whiny bitch.
I do note the polls— hard not to when your nose is being rubbed in them every damn day. However, I keep thinking that the Dem game is so hot, and besides all the people who voted for Biden, we’ve got loads more who’ve come on board this time, most of them white-hot with fury and rage (under the optimism and joy, of course)…and I can’t see Trump beating that.
His approval ratings (OK, I guess that’s from POLLS) are unchanged. Meanwhile, we’re sucking up Nikki Haley’s abandoned no-more-Trump supporters; we’ve got Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, and Bad Bunny, whoever he is. They have the absolute dregs of “celebrity” endorsers— Hulk Hogan can no longer rip his tank top (sad!), and that sinister Tony Hinchcliffe has even freaked out a few of the rank and file, beyond the panicked R’s running for office in states full of Puerto Rican voters.
BTW— I hope everyone saw the heart-warming spousal embrace of the darling Trumps! There was such an overflow of affection there, that—for the sake of decorum— Melania had to tamp it down by pretending Donald was some repulsive client at a corporate cocktail party whom she recognized as the Balkans warlord who’d massacred her entire village. Hence, a dry kiss on both cheeks while struggling to keep her lip from curling. So sweet!
I knew he was PR, and a musician, but I feel like I just started hearing the name a couple of months ago, and haven’t gotten around to even learning what KIND of music he does! Clearly red-hot on social media.
Yes, that podcast was a riot and I am SO LOOKING FORWARD to reading your memoir, dear E. Jean! I will buy a copy for all of my friends, their friends, and their friends, too! xo
I have the worst PTSD from Hillary Clinton’s campaign. I phone-banked and wrote stuff for the campaign in Louisiana, and because your assailant was so obviously disqualified, I assumed she would win.
After the results came in, I was numb. I found myself the next day driving through Southeastern Louisiana’s sugar cane fields. I pulled into one of them, got out of my car and sobbed, leaning on the roof of my car, howling with grief.
I am trying to be cooler this time, so I am not overthinking the polls. I instead am crafting pitches to evangelical never-assailant Republicans, and I seem to be getting a little traction with some of them.
My husband and I were basically kicked out of a church that had seemed normal and conventional to us when we joined, but they went full-bore assailant-y and told us if we didn’t believe the now-convicted felon was especially appointed by God, we were “back-slidden” and therefore should either repent or leave. We left.
Things like this happened everywhere in America. A group started to form of us calling ourselves “Red-letter Christians” (Red for the type used in many Bibles where Jesus is quoted), and there is a bit of a movement. A lot of people are gettable voters, so I wrote some essays that are low-key circulating in Bible-belt online circles to create a permission structure for believers in the kind of Christianity I practice to vote for Kamala. It should be a no-brainer, but a person needs to be invited in a way that does not suggest that he or she is betraying his or her faith. I rather quote the Bible to them to prove that their faith expects them to be, for instance, loving to people of other races.
This is my knocking doors, effectively, or rather, it is my “knock, knock, knocking on Heaven’s door”. I am giving people permission to vote their actual conscience without feeling like it’s heresy.
But the polls? None of my students ever answer the phone for unknown callers. They are voting in pretty large numbers. In the interest of their freedom, I give them good things to read that might lead them to consider ethical issues, but I never ask for whom they might cast a vote. It’s none of my business.
I do know the polls don’t reach them to count them.
The vibes? I think we felt hopeful prior to election night for Hillary. I like that Bad Bunny and Taylor Swift are getting voters out. It’s impossible, btw, to overstate the influence of Tay-tay — she came to town here in New Orleans this weekend, and the airports had to warm people that there would be delays from all the Swifties flying in from all over. The traffic patterns had to shift as much as if we were near the UN during the General Assembly. The city estimates she generated $500,000,000 from her three-night concert stay at the Superdome for the whole city.
So Tay-Tay can come back-back here any time she wants-wants. She has gotten about 800,000 first-time voters to register.
I am spending a large amount of time praying for this country, day and night.
My husband is back in and out of the hospital, so I have been praying for him as well.
Nothing will be normal until we see a non-fascist sworn in and at the Resolute Desk. The polls are unreliable tea leaves.
I just listened to your interview on “Print is Dead,” and I am impressed by your determination to write for a magazine that endured for so long and am not surprised the SNL boys didn’t get your humor. I, too, am enraptured by Austen, who would be the most fun at any party in any era of any interlocutor and sister pub crawler.
I faced a pretty thick glass ceiling as well in poetry because — a) I was female, and b) I wasn’t getting naked with any famous male poet — a sign of good judgment on my part because poets, like tarantulas, always devour each other after mating. It is the oddest thing in the world that I became a Southern writer because one isn’t supposed to become one. One is supposed to be born in the South, like Harper Lee. I was a resident of South Brooklyn, not THE South. I did find my way in the end, but it took me two decades longer than many others. My first book, THE WHITE TRASH PANTHEON, won a prize from the Southern Writers Southern Writing Conference for being the best and most authentically Southern manuscript they read in poetry that year.
I admire self-invented people, and I admire you for becoming the person only you (and possibly Elizabeth Bennet) might envision.
I am off to teach students how to write a proposal essay (like “Common Sense” by Paine, only without the sense).
I salute you and your entire career, including this chapter of it.
I can't avoid them as I'm an avid news junkie. But I am one of 200K that canceled my WaPo script. I see them on each site but each one is different, sometimes contradicting itself. The Hill is the worst but it's as close as I get to right wing goings on.
Yes, they drive me crazy because what I see with my eyes & what the polls say are diametrically opposite of each other. Ex: The Hill has that blob up 54-46. Yet they have a story where it has Kamala up nationwide on the same front page by 4 so go figure. Then there's the crowds (oops! Couldn't make it to MSG but my 2 tix were 2 of many empty seats, wink wink) The enthusiasm, turnout, being out & loud about our support is, to me, more of a reading on how it will turn out. Also how have I gone 64 yr w/out ever being polled?
So no. I don't believe polls & every day I see more & more Rs coming out in favor of Kamala. The most compelling thing I see is on You tube. The Meidas Touch runs a series of Rs voting for Kamala & why they're never voting for OB again.
I had two of those empty seats at MSG too. For my sins I have ever since been receiving 1-3 desperate fundraising texts an hour from the Yamster campaign.
I'm spammed out too! Luckily my phone has a spam filter so I don't get notifications. But each day I must remove over a dozen. The emails go directly to my junk mail. As for the tix? Was part of a huge group that all ordered tix just for the heck of it. I did see video where there were lots of empty seats so mission accomplished!
Other than the advice column & a word puzzle there's very little I'll miss since there are so many other places to get real news, not this both sides nonsense. The letters to the editor were absolutely brutal! I was proud of my fellow Americans reading thru them.
I've canceled the WaPo too. I'm debating on Prime simply because there are certain items that I need for health reasons that I've only found on Amazon.
I think the polls are no more accurate than tarot cards, tea leaf readings, or phrenology. However, they are still terrifying and all of the probable outcomes are nightmare-inducing.
Apologies to those who live by astrology, tarot, palm reading, etc.
As my old riding instructor used to say, Some things ain't worth shit. She was correct.
The problem with polls is:
A. Who is paying for the activity because that can GREATLY influence the outcome. It shouldn't but it does, unfortunately. Anything paid for by any of the Republican National Committee or one of their billionaire funded PACS, a foreign investor, or a friendly corporation will show the Republicans leading guaranteed before they even launch it. It's understood in the contract before the ink is dry.
B. A lot depends on the size (number) of the poll. The more people who are in the poll, the better the veracity of the polls. The wider the cross section of the population, the better. The Dem polls tend to have better cross-sections and a greater number of people being included so their polls tend to be more accurate. The Republicans are not as careful because if they were, they wouldn't get the numbers they want.
C. The locations where you DO the polling matter. If you do all your polls in NYC, you'll get great numbers for KH/TW. But if you do most of your polling in Podunk, IA, you get terrific numbers for DT. Location, location, location.
D. And who crunches the numbers can have something to do with it. There's an adage in statistics that you can make numbers mean just about anything. Part of the way I made my living was using statistics. You do need to be careful with how you use them.
All of that said, I've gotten to the point that I don't even trust 538 much anymore. I have no idea where Nate Silver and his crew are getting their information but it is just not jivving with what I've been seeing. They weren't all that accurate in 2016 or 2020 either. Better than a lot of them, but not as good as they have been in the past.
Steve Kornaki is an analyst of other people's polling data. He takes several polls and puts them in his little computer and then shakes them up to see what it comes up with. I suppose that's one way of doing it, but he's not actually doing any polling analysis. He's analyzing the analyses. That makes me crazy. Okay, I'm nit picking. I admit it. People who do statistics are prone to it. I'm not saying it's wrong, per se. It just makes me nutty.
I participate in the You.gov polling which is paid for by various people including Reuters/IPSOS. (So you do know somebody who has been polled!) It's effective, efficient, and, I think, pretty good. They can question a high number of people across a big cross section of the population via the internet. It comes in my feed fairly often. Brookings has a good poll, but it's not as frequent. Pew Research does one. There are several universities that do them, but they work off grant money so they are very infrequent. They are very good though.
If you want really good analysis, though, The Meidas Touch Network can provide that for you. Most of the people on there are attorneys and they make their livings in the real world analyzing the law, numbers, and reading people. They have videos on YouTube, and podcasts are just about everywhere. Also on Patreon.
Right now? I'm trying not to freak out. That monster's Garden rally was entirely too much like the one in 1939. My gut and my heart say we're going to win, but my brain keeps saying yeah, but what if. Fortunately, my gut and my heart are usually correct. Besides, one of my friends is owed by that dude and that debt won't be paid if he wins. We have to win. We HAVE TO WIN.
3. Have you ever believed a poll in your life? Nope.
Or, do you not look at them? I don't look. I've been polled a lot since moving to Arizona, and one thing I have noticed is how hilariously skewed the GOP ones are. The Dem ones just ask straight out who I'm gonna vote for, and they ask simple multiple choice questions about the issues. The GOP ones ask questions like "Would you rather have a 75% chance of being murdered by an illegal or will you vote for The Great Pumpkin?" I always say I'll take the 75% chance because we know it's a lie.
I early-voted and I can't have wine for 14 days because of dental surgery, so I do not know how I'm gonna get through this next week.
As of yesterday, I shut down all election news and talk. It's far more inspiring to just enjoy the Conflab where we can marvel at how fabulous Miss E. Jean Carroll is and how fabulous we all are. We'll be fabulous even in adversity and ... and ... please no adversity!
I don't know a single person who was ever polled for an election. No one ever called me! And I don't trust or believe in them. I am going to continue my stress eating, Klonopin (just one a day) ingesting, caffeine, knitting like a demon. Oh kids, we have to win. We just have to.
And, Caroline, my darling, WE WILL!!
Yes! Everything you said plus martinis and Ambien!
Ambien martinis for everybody!
Har!!!
Adding a topic: I hear Teri Garr died, RIP. Did anyone know her personally? Funny lady. -- Read a quote from her, that she didn't like to be stereotyped as "dumb sexy person" and liked more nuanced roles. Good that she stood up for women not being stereotyped.
Oh, that's so sad. She was fabulous!
Yes indeed. -- Speaking of "Young Frankenstein", Trump may resemble "Old Frankenstein", or "Old Rapist-stein". (Don't forget his buddy "Frankenmusk"! (I wrote a song with that latter title, may put up a free link sometime...) :D
Teri Garr was great!
Tootsie: Are those my chocolates?
Young Frankenstein: Would you like a roll in the hay? Roll in the hay, roll in the hay,,
The only time I had Ambien and a martini was on a plane either to or from Japan (can't remember), when a psychiatrist friend said that's what she was doing, so she ordered up the combo for me, too. I woke up I don't know how many hours later with a deep crease along the side of my face evidently caused by resting face-down between two seats. Or maybe I was on the floor. I couldn't tell you. And neither could she. xo
I AM ON THE FLOOR!!!!!!!!
Hope you raise the "ceiling" of public consciousness by Election Day! E. Jean the Enlightener! :D :D
LOL
lol
No Ambien here! I took it for while and went sleep-shopping online! Packages would show up in the correct size and in good taste. At least I know I wasn't shopping for horrible items in my sleep. My doctor thought it was hilarious. My bank account, not so much.
I'm sorry, but this made me laugh. And, I think we all need a good laugh.
Happy to provide the laughs. I laugh about it all the time, but just stay away from Ambien.
I think that’s quite funny! Wish I had that excuse to give my husband when the credit card bill arrives!!!
Shh. Don't tell him you're taking it. LOL. I couldn't figure out the packages, so I went to the websites and found that all the orders were in the middle of the night, like 3:30 a.m.
And to think that I occasionally just sleep walk and toilet paper the inside of my house.
I actually have been polled on my cell phone, but I don't pick up unknown callers anymore. I did receive one by text in the past week that seemed legit. The questions were not biased, but more straight "Who do you plan to vote for?" "What party are you registered with?" etc. so I went ahead and filled it out.
But it all hinges on turnout, so the polls are somewhat meaningless.
I reserved 2 tickets to Trump MSG event (they force you to give cell #) and have been getting 20 fundraising texts a day from them. Thank god event is over (and was a disaster) so I could finally block the number. Did you know you are not allowed to bring appliances to Trump rallys? They specifically ban toasters. Are people making toast at Trump rallys? Or throwing them at the stage? WTF? If I had actually been planning to go, would have dragged my stove with me as my plus one.
I say a battery operated curling iron would be cool
Tony is KNOWN for being a roast/insult comic, I imagine fashions himself after Don Rickles. I found one of my favorite comics which I actually got to see in person, Ahren Belisile, who is mute but talks through his phone. But he was obviously was not properly vetted, or scarier, maybe he was. Look up Kill Tony on YouTube.
You are absolutely, 100% correct, Michele. All about turnout!
so true
I do the martini thing than I believe in polls no
I don't believe polls for two reasons: (1) I've studied statistics. (2) Decades ago, I received a political call. When they asked their question, I told them that because of the way they worded it, if I answered yes, my answer wouldn't be true, and if I answered no, it also wouldn't be true. They hung up on me. So, unless we know the specific question asked when the poll is conducted, we can't know the true meaning of the response that leads to the poll number.
Oh! Ginni!
This is fascinating. I just got a brain boost from you!
I did something similar once. I got a few questions in when it became crystal clear who was paying for that poll and it wasn't non-partisan at all as I was told. I told the questioner off for lying to me and hung up. Don't lie to me. It's rude.
Ellen! love it when you tell people off!!!
I get that. I got a text one the other day and none of the questions were slanted, so I went ahead and answered. I was hyper-vigilant about that.
I had one about a local race where the caller couldn’t pronounce the candidate’s name correctly, and I thought for half of the conversation she was talking about someone else.
Har!
I've always followed the Willie Brown Rule, taught to me by the master, long ago:
Ignore the damn polls. run like you're ten points down till the real polls close, then celebrate.
YUP!
Local polls aren't worth shit, and national polls are barely worth more.
Thank you, Ellen!!!!!!! Eggzactly!
The best way to predict the future is to make it, they say. On that note, it'd be great for 60 Minutes or the Today Show, etc., to interview E. Jean before the election. Donald Trump is a rapist: if he raped a voter, or their wife or daughter, would they vote for him? ...Believe it or not, I've written a rap song about E. Jean (!), and might share it later. But I'd like to see her in the spotlight, nationally, before (and on) Election Day. (And thanks to her for her timely post today!)
Thank you, David!
Agreed 100%. E.Jean it would be wonderful to see you interview on a show before the election. I would send out invites to watch to everyone I know!! -Staying in the moment for now!
If you aren’t already part of the Patreon Angry Staffer community, you owe it to yourself to tap into his/her expert knowledge of national security, international relations, and apropos here, the political machinations of Washington DC. Never a false note, never been wrong.
.
.
Short answer: national polls aren’t worth much especially now, because of the 20 most-quoted ones, 15 chartered by conservative R operations. Thus their skewed versions of reality drags the averages to the right, with misleading results. Internal polling, which doesn’t get released, is showing that the right is, like their Fuhrer, crapping their pants. This doesn’t mean we let up — we need to keep going full speed ahead on our efforts to put what’s left of the GOP in such a deep hole they’ll have to undergo wholesale restructuring, which will benefit everybody. It’s looking good but that means we have to get every last vote out there. Women will save the country.
.
.
The Lincoln Project has some great ads out running now in “battleground” states. In them, the bros slap backs and assure each other their little ladies will vote for “the right guy,” just like they will. The women smile, “Of course, dear,” go into the privacy of the voting booth, smile at the woman in the next booth, and they both fill in the oval for Kamala Harris.
.
.
Reports from door-knockers and the sign distributors say much the same— the woman answers the door, slips out, and says she’s the only one on the block who’s voting for Harris; the doorknocker says, ”That’s what the woman three doors down told me, too.” The sign goes up; others on the block, formerly intimidated by T signs, put up their Harris-Walz signs too.
Fuck the polls. We can’t back down, but this is what happens when bullies get pushback: they fold. We got this.
Auntie Beans, once again you gallop in with one of the most eloquent, common sense advice!
Oh, and the other part of the strategy of flooding the airwaves with bogus polls is so that the Yamster can say the election was rigged because the polls had him doing so well. It’s specifically tailored to cast further aspersions on voting. He plans to declare victory at 9pm on Tuesday, well before other votes are even in or counted, in hopes that west coast voters will give up and not go to the polling places. And to howl about fraud because the polls were all for him … Don’t you buy a bit of it. For somebody who advertises himself a big strong man’s man , he sure is a whiny bitch.
A good warning, Auntie Beans! And true!
Oh, yes, LOVE ANGRY. That guy is wonderful.
I do note the polls— hard not to when your nose is being rubbed in them every damn day. However, I keep thinking that the Dem game is so hot, and besides all the people who voted for Biden, we’ve got loads more who’ve come on board this time, most of them white-hot with fury and rage (under the optimism and joy, of course)…and I can’t see Trump beating that.
His approval ratings (OK, I guess that’s from POLLS) are unchanged. Meanwhile, we’re sucking up Nikki Haley’s abandoned no-more-Trump supporters; we’ve got Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, and Bad Bunny, whoever he is. They have the absolute dregs of “celebrity” endorsers— Hulk Hogan can no longer rip his tank top (sad!), and that sinister Tony Hinchcliffe has even freaked out a few of the rank and file, beyond the panicked R’s running for office in states full of Puerto Rican voters.
BTW— I hope everyone saw the heart-warming spousal embrace of the darling Trumps! There was such an overflow of affection there, that—for the sake of decorum— Melania had to tamp it down by pretending Donald was some repulsive client at a corporate cocktail party whom she recognized as the Balkans warlord who’d massacred her entire village. Hence, a dry kiss on both cheeks while struggling to keep her lip from curling. So sweet!
Perfect description, Maria!
Bless you, brilliant E. Jean! (And that means a LOT coming from a secular humanist.)
awwww.
Bad Bunny is a prominent Puerto Rican musician, who has many followers... :D
Yes!
I knew he was PR, and a musician, but I feel like I just started hearing the name a couple of months ago, and haven’t gotten around to even learning what KIND of music he does! Clearly red-hot on social media.
I think he won the Grammy for best new album sometime in the last couple of years.
Yes. He is and does. Good for all to know.
She demanded and was paid a good hefty appearance fee for that.
I certainly hope so! I’m no fan of Mel, but wouldn’t wish an on-the-lips kiss with Donald on the worst person on Earth! (Well, maybe on Alina Hanna.)
HABBA, you pesky autocorrect!
And Aileen Cannon, the fan girl!
Right on. She can endure a French one!
Not looking at them. Too misleading.
"Misleading" is an understatement, A.S.!!
Yes, that podcast was a riot and I am SO LOOKING FORWARD to reading your memoir, dear E. Jean! I will buy a copy for all of my friends, their friends, and their friends, too! xo
Awww, thank you, Val!
I’m looking forward to it too! Gotta be good!
Dearest E. Jean,
I have the worst PTSD from Hillary Clinton’s campaign. I phone-banked and wrote stuff for the campaign in Louisiana, and because your assailant was so obviously disqualified, I assumed she would win.
After the results came in, I was numb. I found myself the next day driving through Southeastern Louisiana’s sugar cane fields. I pulled into one of them, got out of my car and sobbed, leaning on the roof of my car, howling with grief.
I am trying to be cooler this time, so I am not overthinking the polls. I instead am crafting pitches to evangelical never-assailant Republicans, and I seem to be getting a little traction with some of them.
My husband and I were basically kicked out of a church that had seemed normal and conventional to us when we joined, but they went full-bore assailant-y and told us if we didn’t believe the now-convicted felon was especially appointed by God, we were “back-slidden” and therefore should either repent or leave. We left.
Things like this happened everywhere in America. A group started to form of us calling ourselves “Red-letter Christians” (Red for the type used in many Bibles where Jesus is quoted), and there is a bit of a movement. A lot of people are gettable voters, so I wrote some essays that are low-key circulating in Bible-belt online circles to create a permission structure for believers in the kind of Christianity I practice to vote for Kamala. It should be a no-brainer, but a person needs to be invited in a way that does not suggest that he or she is betraying his or her faith. I rather quote the Bible to them to prove that their faith expects them to be, for instance, loving to people of other races.
This is my knocking doors, effectively, or rather, it is my “knock, knock, knocking on Heaven’s door”. I am giving people permission to vote their actual conscience without feeling like it’s heresy.
But the polls? None of my students ever answer the phone for unknown callers. They are voting in pretty large numbers. In the interest of their freedom, I give them good things to read that might lead them to consider ethical issues, but I never ask for whom they might cast a vote. It’s none of my business.
I do know the polls don’t reach them to count them.
The vibes? I think we felt hopeful prior to election night for Hillary. I like that Bad Bunny and Taylor Swift are getting voters out. It’s impossible, btw, to overstate the influence of Tay-tay — she came to town here in New Orleans this weekend, and the airports had to warm people that there would be delays from all the Swifties flying in from all over. The traffic patterns had to shift as much as if we were near the UN during the General Assembly. The city estimates she generated $500,000,000 from her three-night concert stay at the Superdome for the whole city.
So Tay-Tay can come back-back here any time she wants-wants. She has gotten about 800,000 first-time voters to register.
I am spending a large amount of time praying for this country, day and night.
My husband is back in and out of the hospital, so I have been praying for him as well.
Nothing will be normal until we see a non-fascist sworn in and at the Resolute Desk. The polls are unreliable tea leaves.
Anne! May the gods speed your husband back to full and hearty health!!!!
A do not worry, the women are gonna win this!
Dearest E. Jean,
I just listened to your interview on “Print is Dead,” and I am impressed by your determination to write for a magazine that endured for so long and am not surprised the SNL boys didn’t get your humor. I, too, am enraptured by Austen, who would be the most fun at any party in any era of any interlocutor and sister pub crawler.
I faced a pretty thick glass ceiling as well in poetry because — a) I was female, and b) I wasn’t getting naked with any famous male poet — a sign of good judgment on my part because poets, like tarantulas, always devour each other after mating. It is the oddest thing in the world that I became a Southern writer because one isn’t supposed to become one. One is supposed to be born in the South, like Harper Lee. I was a resident of South Brooklyn, not THE South. I did find my way in the end, but it took me two decades longer than many others. My first book, THE WHITE TRASH PANTHEON, won a prize from the Southern Writers Southern Writing Conference for being the best and most authentically Southern manuscript they read in poetry that year.
I admire self-invented people, and I admire you for becoming the person only you (and possibly Elizabeth Bennet) might envision.
I am off to teach students how to write a proposal essay (like “Common Sense” by Paine, only without the sense).
I salute you and your entire career, including this chapter of it.
From the parking lot at the Netherfield Ball,
Anne
"From the parking lot at the Netherfield Ball!!!!!"
I'm dying of happiness.
I hope you and Tay tay will win the day day
I’m not looking at them because who TF are they even asking?!
Precisely!!!
They’ve never asked me or anyone I know
In all my nearly 35 years on Earth I have never been called or approached
ME!!
Bingo🎯🎯🎯
I can't avoid them as I'm an avid news junkie. But I am one of 200K that canceled my WaPo script. I see them on each site but each one is different, sometimes contradicting itself. The Hill is the worst but it's as close as I get to right wing goings on.
Yes, they drive me crazy because what I see with my eyes & what the polls say are diametrically opposite of each other. Ex: The Hill has that blob up 54-46. Yet they have a story where it has Kamala up nationwide on the same front page by 4 so go figure. Then there's the crowds (oops! Couldn't make it to MSG but my 2 tix were 2 of many empty seats, wink wink) The enthusiasm, turnout, being out & loud about our support is, to me, more of a reading on how it will turn out. Also how have I gone 64 yr w/out ever being polled?
So no. I don't believe polls & every day I see more & more Rs coming out in favor of Kamala. The most compelling thing I see is on You tube. The Meidas Touch runs a series of Rs voting for Kamala & why they're never voting for OB again.
Stacy! I know! I know! Polls do "drive us crazy!"
I had two of those empty seats at MSG too. For my sins I have ever since been receiving 1-3 desperate fundraising texts an hour from the Yamster campaign.
Lordy!!!
I'm spammed out too! Luckily my phone has a spam filter so I don't get notifications. But each day I must remove over a dozen. The emails go directly to my junk mail. As for the tix? Was part of a huge group that all ordered tix just for the heck of it. I did see video where there were lots of empty seats so mission accomplished!
Thank you for cancelling bezos!!!
my sister used to work for them decades ago. She cancelled so fast. I might keep mine for awhile just to harass Bezos.
Sadly I do need to keep Amazon as I don't drive anymore & live in a suburb so I'm going to keep that.
Other than the advice column & a word puzzle there's very little I'll miss since there are so many other places to get real news, not this both sides nonsense. The letters to the editor were absolutely brutal! I was proud of my fellow Americans reading thru them.
I've canceled the WaPo too. I'm debating on Prime simply because there are certain items that I need for health reasons that I've only found on Amazon.
Exactly! The shelves at CVS are hit or miss for certain products. There are things they just don't carry anymore that are essentials.
I love Prime.
I think the polls are no more accurate than tarot cards, tea leaf readings, or phrenology. However, they are still terrifying and all of the probable outcomes are nightmare-inducing.
Apologies to those who live by astrology, tarot, palm reading, etc.
You have a most excellent point, Eliza!
Ehhhhhhhh, it depends on the polls.
As my old riding instructor used to say, Some things ain't worth shit. She was correct.
The problem with polls is:
A. Who is paying for the activity because that can GREATLY influence the outcome. It shouldn't but it does, unfortunately. Anything paid for by any of the Republican National Committee or one of their billionaire funded PACS, a foreign investor, or a friendly corporation will show the Republicans leading guaranteed before they even launch it. It's understood in the contract before the ink is dry.
B. A lot depends on the size (number) of the poll. The more people who are in the poll, the better the veracity of the polls. The wider the cross section of the population, the better. The Dem polls tend to have better cross-sections and a greater number of people being included so their polls tend to be more accurate. The Republicans are not as careful because if they were, they wouldn't get the numbers they want.
C. The locations where you DO the polling matter. If you do all your polls in NYC, you'll get great numbers for KH/TW. But if you do most of your polling in Podunk, IA, you get terrific numbers for DT. Location, location, location.
D. And who crunches the numbers can have something to do with it. There's an adage in statistics that you can make numbers mean just about anything. Part of the way I made my living was using statistics. You do need to be careful with how you use them.
All of that said, I've gotten to the point that I don't even trust 538 much anymore. I have no idea where Nate Silver and his crew are getting their information but it is just not jivving with what I've been seeing. They weren't all that accurate in 2016 or 2020 either. Better than a lot of them, but not as good as they have been in the past.
Steve Kornaki is an analyst of other people's polling data. He takes several polls and puts them in his little computer and then shakes them up to see what it comes up with. I suppose that's one way of doing it, but he's not actually doing any polling analysis. He's analyzing the analyses. That makes me crazy. Okay, I'm nit picking. I admit it. People who do statistics are prone to it. I'm not saying it's wrong, per se. It just makes me nutty.
I participate in the You.gov polling which is paid for by various people including Reuters/IPSOS. (So you do know somebody who has been polled!) It's effective, efficient, and, I think, pretty good. They can question a high number of people across a big cross section of the population via the internet. It comes in my feed fairly often. Brookings has a good poll, but it's not as frequent. Pew Research does one. There are several universities that do them, but they work off grant money so they are very infrequent. They are very good though.
If you want really good analysis, though, The Meidas Touch Network can provide that for you. Most of the people on there are attorneys and they make their livings in the real world analyzing the law, numbers, and reading people. They have videos on YouTube, and podcasts are just about everywhere. Also on Patreon.
Right now? I'm trying not to freak out. That monster's Garden rally was entirely too much like the one in 1939. My gut and my heart say we're going to win, but my brain keeps saying yeah, but what if. Fortunately, my gut and my heart are usually correct. Besides, one of my friends is owed by that dude and that debt won't be paid if he wins. We have to win. We HAVE TO WIN.
1. What polls are you keeping your eye on? None.
2. What polls are driving you crazy? All of them.
3. Have you ever believed a poll in your life? Nope.
Or, do you not look at them? I don't look. I've been polled a lot since moving to Arizona, and one thing I have noticed is how hilariously skewed the GOP ones are. The Dem ones just ask straight out who I'm gonna vote for, and they ask simple multiple choice questions about the issues. The GOP ones ask questions like "Would you rather have a 75% chance of being murdered by an illegal or will you vote for The Great Pumpkin?" I always say I'll take the 75% chance because we know it's a lie.
I early-voted and I can't have wine for 14 days because of dental surgery, so I do not know how I'm gonna get through this next week.
As of yesterday, I shut down all election news and talk. It's far more inspiring to just enjoy the Conflab where we can marvel at how fabulous Miss E. Jean Carroll is and how fabulous we all are. We'll be fabulous even in adversity and ... and ... please no adversity!
Not looking: too afraid I admit it
Also, you are too smart to look at 'em, Nancy!